Covid-19 Fiocruz Observatory - an analysis of the evolution of the pandemic from February 2020 to April 2022. / Observatório Covid-19 Fiocruz - uma análise da evolução da pandemia de fevereiro de 2020 a abril de 2022.

The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the living and working conditions of the entire population of Brazil, having a different and more intense effect on groups considered to be vulnerable. The objective of this article is to present an overview of the evolution of the pandemic in the country according to the bulletins of the Covid-19 Fiocruz Observatory in the period between the declarations of the beginning and end of the Public Health Emergency of National Concern (ESPIN, in Portuguese), February 2020 to April 2022. Several of the indicators adopted in the 69 bulletins published for the analysis of the pandemic were used, such as cases and deaths due to SARIs and COVID-19, age groups, % of occupancy of ICU beds, and vaccination, among others. The evolution analysis was organized between years and phases of the pandemic, seeking to highlight what characterized each moment. The closing statement of ESPIN in Brazil coincides with the discussions on the transition from a pandemic to an endemic scenario, without this representing the elimination of the virus, infections, and disease, posing the challenges of advances in vaccination processes in Brazil and around the world, as well as living with scenarios that may require the adoption of temporary protection measures in epidemic periods and periods of greater risk for vulnerable groups.

A pandemia de COVID-19 teve um imenso impacto nas condições de vida e trabalho de toda a população do país, impactando de modo diferenciado e mais intenso os grupos considerados vulneráveis. O objetivo deste artigo é apresentar um panorama da evolução da pandemia no país segundo os boletins do Observatório Covid-19 Fiocruz, no período entre as declarações de início e de encerramento da Emergência em Saúde Pública de Importância Nacional (ESPIN), fevereiro de 2020 a abril de 2022. Foram utilizados diversos dos indicadores adotados nos 69 boletins publicados para a análise da pandemia, como casos e óbitos por SRAGs e COVID-19, grupos etários, taxas de ocupação de leitos UTI e vacinação, entre outros. A análise da evolução foi organizada entre anos e fases da pandemia, procurando destacar o que caracterizou cada momento. A declaração de encerramento da ESPIN no Brasil coincide com as discussões acerca da transição de pandemia para a endemia, sem que isso represente a eliminação do vírus, das infecções e da doença, colocando-se os desafios de avanços nos processos de vacinação no Brasil e no mundo e da convivência com cenários que poderão exigir a adoção de medidas de proteção temporárias em períodos epidêmicos e de maior risco para grupos vulneráveis.

Observatório Covid-19 Fiocruz - uma análise da evolução da pandemia de fevereiro de 2020 a abril de 2022 / Covid-19 Fiocruz Observatory - an analysis of the evolution of the pandemic from February 2020 to April 2022

Resumo A pandemia de COVID-19 teve um imenso impacto nas condições de vida e trabalho de toda a população do país, impactando de modo diferenciado e mais intenso os grupos considerados vulneráveis. O objetivo deste artigo é apresentar um panorama da evolução da pandemia no país segundo os boletins do Observatório Covid-19 Fiocruz, no período entre as declarações de início e de encerramento da Emergência em Saúde Pública de Importância Nacional (ESPIN), fevereiro de 2020 a abril de 2022. Foram utilizados diversos dos indicadores adotados nos 69 boletins publicados para a análise da pandemia, como casos e óbitos por SRAGs e COVID-19, grupos etários, taxas de ocupação de leitos UTI e vacinação, entre outros. A análise da evolução foi organizada entre anos e fases da pandemia, procurando destacar o que caracterizou cada momento. A declaração de encerramento da ESPIN no Brasil coincide com as discussões acerca da transição de pandemia para a endemia, sem que isso represente a eliminação do vírus, das infecções e da doença, colocando-se os desafios de avanços nos processos de vacinação no Brasil e no mundo e da convivência com cenários que poderão exigir a adoção de medidas de proteção temporárias em períodos epidêmicos e de maior risco para grupos vulneráveis.

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the living and working conditions of the entire population of Brazil, having a different and more intense effect on groups considered to be vulnerable. The objective of this article is to present an overview of the evolution of the pandemic in the country according to the bulletins of the Covid-19 Fiocruz Observatory in the period between the declarations of the beginning and end of the Public Health Emergency of National Concern (ESPIN, in Portuguese), February 2020 to April 2022. Several of the indicators adopted in the 69 bulletins published for the analysis of the pandemic were used, such as cases and deaths due to SARIs and COVID-19, age groups, % of occupancy of ICU beds, and vaccination, among others. The evolution analysis was organized between years and phases of the pandemic, seeking to highlight what characterized each moment. The closing statement of ESPIN in Brazil coincides with the discussions on the transition from a pandemic to an endemic scenario, without this representing the elimination of the virus, infections, and disease, posing the challenges of advances in vaccination processes in Brazil and around the world, as well as living with scenarios that may require the adoption of temporary protection measures in epidemic periods and periods of greater risk for vulnerable groups.

Social school contacts of multibacillary leprosy cases in children living in the hyperendemic region of the Midwest of Brazil

Abstract Objective: To analyze the prevalence of Mycobacterium leprae detection and the associated factors among social contacts in the school environment of multibacillary cases living in a hyperendemic municipality of the state of Mato Grosso. Methods: Cross-sectional study with 236 social contacts of multibacillary leprosy from public schools and residents in Cuiabá (Mato Grosso) in 2018. The sources of information were interviews and nasal swab tests for molecular analysis by polymerase chain reaction - PCR. For the prevalence ratio estimates, crude and adjusted analyses were performed using robust Poisson regression and their respective confidence intervals (95% CI). The ArcGIS 9.1 software was used for the geographic distribution analyses. Results: The prevalence of detection of M. leprae in social contacts was 14%. A total of 63.6% of the schools surveyed had 5.1% to 50% of the social contacts of leprosy with positive PCR. The analysis of the geographic distribution in the neighborhoods showed a high prevalence of infection, being higher than 50% in some localities. The highest proportion of positive results occurred in the northern region of the city and from a precarious socioeconomic class. Conclusion: The results showed a high prevalence of detection of M. leprae among social contacts in areas with poor socioeconomic conditions. In these regions, there is a greater risk of

As diferentes fases, os seus impactos e os desafios da pandemia de covid-19 no Brasil / The different stages, its impacts, and the challenges of the covid-19 pandemic in Brazil / Las diferentes fases, sus impactos y los desafíos de la pandemia de covid-19 e Brasil

A dinâmica da pandemia de covid-19 vem evoluindo segundo fases marcadas por uma maior ou menor taxa de infecção, e diferentes impactos sobre o sistema de saúde e a mortalidade. Essas fases foram estudadas segundo quatro indicadores disponibilizados no sistema MonitoraCovid-19: positividade de testes de diagnóstico, número de casos, número de óbitos e o número de pessoas com ao menos duas doses de vacinas ­ padronizados numa série histórica para permitir sua comparação. São distinguidas cinco fases, marcadas pela circulação de diferentes variantes do vírus, estratégias de implementação ­ ou mesmo boicote ­ de medidas de controle e a vacinação gradativa da população. Esses indicadores podem ser usados no futuro para monitorar tendências e apontar políticas públicas adequadas.

The dynamics of the covid-19 pandemic has evolved according to phases marked by a higher or lower rate of infection, the different impacts on the health system and mortality. These phases were studied according to four indicators made available by the MonitoraCovid-19 system: positivity rates of diagnostic tests, number of cases, number of deaths and number of people who received at least two vaccine doses, standardized in a historical series to allow their comparison. Five phases are discerned, evidenced by the circulation of different virus variants, strategies employed to implement -or even undermine ­ disease control measures and the gradual vaccination of the population. These indicators can be used in the future to monitor trends and point out appropriate public policies.

La dinámica de la pandemia de covid-19 ha evolucionado según fases marcadas por una mayor o menor tasa de contagios, sus diferentes impactos en el sistema de salud y mortalidad. Estas fases se estudiaron según cuatro indicadores disponibles en el sistema MonitoraCovid-19: positividad de las pruebas diagnósticas, número de casos, número de defunciones y el número de personas vacunadas con al menos dos dosis, estandarizados en una serie histórica para permitir su comparación. Se distinguen cuatro fases, marcadas por la circulación de diferentes variantes del virus, las estrategias de implementación - o mismo el boicoteode medidas de control y la paulatina vacunación de la población. Estos indicadores pueden utilizarse en el futuro para monitorear tendencias y señalar políticas públicas apropiadas.

How to overcome the stagnation of the first dose vaccine coverage curve against coronavirus disease 2019 in Brazil?

BACKGROUND: A large percentage of the population has not yet started vaccination, for which the increase in coverage is almost null. METHODS: We used segmented regression analysis to estimate trends in the first dose coverage curve. RESULTS: There has been a slowdown in the application of the first doses in Brazil since epidemiological week 36 (average percent change [APC] 0.83%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.75-0.91%), with a trend close to stagnation. CONCLUSIONS: It is important to develop strategies to increase access to vaccination posts. Furthermore, it is recommended to expand vaccination to children, thereby increasing the eligible population.

Involvement of political and socio-economic factors in the spatial and temporal dynamics of COVID-19 outcomes in Brazil: A population-based study.

Background: Brazil has been severely impacted by COVID-19 pandemics that is aggravated by the absence of a scientifically-driven coordinated informative campaign and the interference in public health management, which ultimately affected health measures to avoid SARS-CoV2 spread. The decentralization and resultant conflicts in disease control activities produced different protection behaviours and local government measures. In the present study, we investigated how political partisanship and socio-economic factors determined the outcome of COVID-19 at the local level in Brazil. Methods: A retrospective study of COVID-19 deaths was carried out using mortality databases between Feb 2020, and Jun 2021 for the 5570 Brazilian municipalities. Socio-economic parameters including city categories, income and inequality indexes, health service quality and partisanship, assessed by the result of the second round of the 2018 Brazilian presidential elections, were included. Regression tree analysis was carried out to identify the statistical significance and conditioning relationships of variables. Findings: Municipalities that supported then-candidate Jair Bolsonaro in the 2018 elections were those that had the worst COVID-19 mortality rates, mainly during the second epidemic wave of 2021. This pattern was observed even considering structural inequalities among cities. Interpretation: In general, the first phase of the pandemic hit large and central cities hardest, while the second wave mostly impacted Bolsonarian municipalities, where scientific denialism among the population was stronger. Negative effects of partisanship towards the right-wing on COVID-19 outcomes counterbalances favourable socioeconomic indexes in affluent Brazilian cities. Our results underscore the fragility of public health policies which were undermined by the scientific denialism of right-wing supporters in Brazil. Funding: International joint laboratories of Institute de Recherche pour le Développement, a partnership between the University of Brasília and the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (LMI-Sentinela - UnB - Fiocruz - IRD), Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES), National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq).

Social school contacts of multibacillary leprosy cases in children living in the hyperendemic region of the Midwest of Brazil.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the prevalence of Mycobacterium leprae detection and the associated factors among social contacts in the school environment of multibacillary cases living in a hyperendemic municipality of the state of Mato Grosso. METHODS: Cross-sectional study with 236 social contacts of multibacillary leprosy from public schools and residents in Cuiabá (Mato Grosso) in 2018. The sources of information were interviews and nasal swab tests for molecular analysis by polymerase chain reaction - PCR. For the prevalence ratio estimates, crude and adjusted analyses were performed using robust Poisson regression and their respective confidence intervals (95% CI). The ArcGIS 9.1 software was used for the geographic distribution analyses. RESULTS: The prevalence of detection of M. leprae in social contacts was 14%. A total of 63.6% of the schools surveyed had 5.1% to 50% of the social contacts of leprosy with positive PCR. The analysis of the geographic distribution in the neighborhoods showed a high prevalence of infection, being higher than 50% in some localities. The highest proportion of positive results occurred in the northern region of the city and from a precarious socioeconomic class. CONCLUSION: The results showed a high prevalence of detection of M. leprae among social contacts in areas with poor socioeconomic conditions. In these regions, there is a greater risk of infection and of getting sick.

How to overcome the stagnation of the first dose vaccine coverage curve against coronavirus disease 2019 in Brazil?

ABSTRACT Background: A large percentage of the population has not yet started vaccination, for which the increase in coverage is almost null. Methods: We used segmented regression analysis to estimate trends in the first dose coverage curve. Results: There has been a slowdown in the application of the first doses in Brazil since epidemiological week 36 (average percent change [APC] 0.83%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.75-0.91%), with a trend close to stagnation. Conclusions: It is important to develop strategies to increase access to vaccination posts. Furthermore, it is recommended to expand vaccination to children, thereby increasing the eligible population.

Spatial analysis of the origin-destination flow of admissions for severe acute respiratory syndrome caused by COVID-19 in the Metropolitan Region of Rio de Janeiro. / Análise espacial do fluxo origem-destino das internações por síndrome respiratória aguda grave por COVID-19 na região metropolitana do Rio de Janeiro.

This study analyzed the inter-municipality flow of hospital admissions due to severe acute respiratory syndrome by COVID-19 in the metropolitan region of Rio de Janeiro. We identified 12,676 inter-municipality hospitalizations for COVID-19 involving the municipality of Rio de Janeiro. In total, 11,288 (89.0%) admissions were of residents of the Metropolitan Region (RM), 87% residents in other municipalities of the same region and admitted to hospitals from the state capital, and 13% residents of the capital admitted to hospitals from other municipalities in the RM. There was a negative correlation when it comes to the distance between cities and the origin-destination flow (r=0.62, p<0.001). The RM of the capital Rio de Janeiro imports more admissions for SARS by COVID-19 than it exports. This study highlights the importance of care networks intended for more severe cases that mainly require specialized care.

Este estudo analisou o fluxo intermunicipal das internações por síndrome respiratória aguda grave por COVID-19 na região metropolitana do Rio de Janeiro. Foram identificadas 12.676 internações intermunicipais por COVID-19 envolvendo o município do Rio de Janeiro. Dessas, 11.288 (89,0%) eram de residentes na região metropolitana, 87% de residentes em outros municípios da mesma região e internados na capital do estado, e 13% eram residentes da capital internados em outros municípios da região. Há correlação negativa entre a distância dos municípios e o fluxo origem-destino (r=0,62, p<0,001). O município do Rio de Janeiro importa mais internações por síndrome respiratória aguda grave por COVID-19 do que exporta. Este estudo evidenciou a importância das redes de atendimento para casos mais graves, os quais necessitem, principalmente, de atenção especializada.

[Floods and leptospirosis in Brazilian municipalities from 2003 to 2013: use of data mining techniques]. / Inundações e leptospirose nos municípios brasileiros no período de 2003 a 2013: utilização de técnicas de mineração de dados.

Leptospirosis is related to problems with environmental sanitation, and the incidence tends to increase during flood periods. Considering issues related to climate change, floods can be expected to increase. Floods do not affect populations homogeneously, and communities with worse socioeconomic conditions tend to be impacted more heavily. In order to determine whether the number of floods increases the incidence of leptospirosis and its relationship to contextual variables, the study used socioeconomic, environmental, and disease occurrence data at the municipal (county) level. Municipalities suffering problems with sewage disposal showed a higher risk of leptospirosis incidence. Total flooding since the municipality's declaration of flood emergency was an important risk marker for leptospirosis incidence. Regression tree modeling proved useful for estimating leptospirosis incidence in Brazil.

A leptospirose se relaciona a problemas de saneamento ambiental, com incremento de casos em períodos de inundações. Levando-se em consideração as questões relacionadas a mudanças climáticas, as inundações tendem a um aumento. As inundações não atingem as populações de maneira homogênea, em geral os menos favorecidos em termos socioeconômicos são os mais acometidos. Para saber se o número de inundações aumentaria a incidência de leptospirose e sua relação com as variáveis contextuais, utilizou-se dados socioeconômicos, ambientais e de ocorrência da doença no nível municipal. Os municípios que tinham problemas no esgotamento sanitário apresentaram maior risco para a ocorrência da leptospirose. O total de inundações adquirida a partir da decretação pela autoridade municipal constituiu um importante marcador de risco para a ocorrência de leptospirose. A modelagem de árvore de regressão mostrou-se útil para estimar a ocorrência de leptospirose no Brasil.

La leptospirosis se relaciona con problemas de saneamiento ambiental, así como con el incremento de casos en períodos de inundaciones. Teniendo en consideración las cuestiones relacionadas con el cambio climático, las inundaciones tienden a aumentar. Las inundaciones no afectan a las poblaciones de manera homogénea, en general, los menos favorecidos en términos socioeconómicos son los más afectados. Para saber si el número de inundaciones aumentaría la incidencia de leptospirosis, y su relación con variables contextuales, se utilizaron datos socioeconómicos, ambientales y de ocurrencia de la enfermedad en el nivel municipal. Los municipios que poseían problemas en el alcantarillado sanitario presentaron un mayor riesgo para la ocurrencia de leptospirosis. El total de inundaciones sufridas a partir de su reconocimiento oficial por parte de la autoridad municipal constituyó un importante marcador de riesgo para la ocurrencia de leptospirosis. El modelo de árbol de regresión se mostró útil para estimar la ocurrencia de leptospirosis en Brasil.

Inundações e leptospirose nos municípios brasileiros no período de 2003 a 2013: utilização de técnicas de mineração de dados / Floods and leptospirosis in Brazilian municipalities from 2003 to 2013: use of data mining techniques / Inundaciones y leptospirosis en municipios brasileños durante el período de 2003 a 2013: utilización de técnicas de mineración de datos

A leptospirose se relaciona a problemas de saneamento ambiental, com incremento de casos em períodos de inundações. Levando-se em consideração as questões relacionadas a mudanças climáticas, as inundações tendem a um aumento. As inundações não atingem as populações de maneira homogênea, em geral os menos favorecidos em termos socioeconômicos são os mais acometidos. Para saber se o número de inundações aumentaria a incidência de leptospirose e sua relação com as variáveis contextuais, utilizou-se dados socioeconômicos, ambientais e de ocorrência da doença no nível municipal. Os municípios que tinham problemas no esgotamento sanitário apresentaram maior risco para a ocorrência da leptospirose. O total de inundações adquirida a partir da decretação pela autoridade municipal constituiu um importante marcador de risco para a ocorrência de leptospirose. A modelagem de árvore de regressão mostrou-se útil para estimar a ocorrência de leptospirose no Brasil.

Leptospirosis is related to problems with environmental sanitation, and the incidence tends to increase during flood periods. Considering issues related to climate change, floods can be expected to increase. Floods do not affect populations homogeneously, and communities with worse socioeconomic conditions tend to be impacted more heavily. In order to determine whether the number of floods increases the incidence of leptospirosis and its relationship to contextual variables, the study used socioeconomic, environmental, and disease occurrence data at the municipal (county) level. Municipalities suffering problems with sewage disposal showed a higher risk of leptospirosis incidence. Total flooding since the municipality's declaration of flood emergency was an important risk marker for leptospirosis incidence. Regression tree modeling proved useful for estimating leptospirosis incidence in Brazil.

La leptospirosis se relaciona con problemas de saneamiento ambiental, así como con el incremento de casos en períodos de inundaciones. Teniendo en consideración las cuestiones relacionadas con el cambio climático, las inundaciones tienden a aumentar. Las inundaciones no afectan a las poblaciones de manera homogénea, en general, los menos favorecidos en términos socioeconómicos son los más afectados. Para saber si el número de inundaciones aumentaría la incidencia de leptospirosis, y su relación con variables contextuales, se utilizaron datos socioeconómicos, ambientales y de ocurrencia de la enfermedad en el nivel municipal. Los municipios que poseían problemas en el alcantarillado sanitario presentaron un mayor riesgo para la ocurrencia de leptospirosis. El total de inundaciones sufridas a partir de su reconocimiento oficial por parte de la autoridad municipal constituyó un importante marcador de riesgo para la ocurrencia de leptospirosis. El modelo de árbol de regresión se mostró útil para estimar la ocurrencia de leptospirosis en Brasil.

Análise espacial do fluxo origem-destino das internações por síndrome respiratória aguda grave por COVID-19 na região metropolitana do Rio de Janeiro / Spatial analysis of the origin-destination flow of admissions for severe acute respiratory syndrome caused by COVID-19 in the Metropolitan Region of Rio de Janeiro

RESUMO: Este estudo analisou o fluxo intermunicipal das internações por síndrome respiratória aguda grave por COVID-19 na região metropolitana do Rio de Janeiro. Foram identificadas 12.676 internações intermunicipais por COVID-19 envolvendo o município do Rio de Janeiro. Dessas, 11.288 (89,0%) eram de residentes na região metropolitana, 87% de residentes em outros municípios da mesma região e internados na capital do estado, e 13% eram residentes da capital internados em outros municípios da região. Há correlação negativa entre a distância dos municípios e o fluxo origem-destino (r=0,62, p<0,001). O município do Rio de Janeiro importa mais internações por síndrome respiratória aguda grave por COVID-19 do que exporta. Este estudo evidenciou a importância das redes de atendimento para casos mais graves, os quais necessitem, principalmente, de atenção especializada.

ABSTRACT: This study analyzed the inter-municipality flow of hospital admissions due to severe acute respiratory syndrome by COVID-19 in the metropolitan region of Rio de Janeiro. We identified 12,676 inter-municipality hospitalizations for COVID-19 involving the municipality of Rio de Janeiro. In total, 11,288 (89.0%) admissions were of residents of the Metropolitan Region (RM), 87% residents in other municipalities of the same region and admitted to hospitals from the state capital, and 13% residents of the capital admitted to hospitals from other municipalities in the RM. There was a negative correlation when it comes to the distance between cities and the origin-destination flow (r=0.62, p<0.001). The RM of the capital Rio de Janeiro imports more admissions for SARS by COVID-19 than it exports. This study highlights the importance of care networks intended for more severe cases that mainly require specialized care.

Adherence to physical contact restriction measures and the spread of COVID-19 in Brazil. / Adesão às medidas de restrição de contato físico e disseminação da COVID-19 no Brasil.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the adherence of the population to physical contact restriction measures and the spread of COVID-19 in Brazil. METHODS: This was a web-based health survey carried out from April 24 to May 24 2020 using a chain sampling procedure. Intensity of adherence to physical contact restriction measures was analyzed according to sociodemographic characteristics, using logistic regression models to investigate associations with 'No/little adherence'. RESULTS: Of the 45,161 participants, 74.2% (73.8;74.6%) reported intense adherence to the measures. The group that did not adhere to the measures was characterized by men (31.7%), those aged 30 to 49 (36.4%), those with low education levels (33.0%), those who worked during the pandemic (81.3%), those resident in the North (28.1%) and Midwest (28.5%) regions of the country. In Brazil as a whole, there was a decrease in COVID-19 daily growth rates, from 45.4% to 5.0%. CONCLUSION: A large part of the Brazilian population adhered to physical contact restriction measures, which possibly contributed to decreasing the spread of COVID-19.

Is it time to talk about the end of social distancing? A joinpoint analysis of COVID-19 time series in Brazilian capitals.

INTRODUCTION: Monitoring coronavirus disease (COVID-19)-related infections and deaths in Brazil is controversial, with increasing pressure to ease social distance measures. However, no evidence of a sustained, widespread fall in cases exists. METHODS: We used segmented (joinpoint) regression analysis to describe the behavior of COVID-19 infections in Brazilian capital cities. RESULTS: All capitals showed an exponential or a near-exponential increase in cases through May. A decline in reported cases was subsequently noted in 20 cities but was only significant for 8 (29.6%) and was followed in two by a renewed increase. CONCLUSIONS: Caution is warranted when considering the relaxation of restrictions.

[Natural disasters and their costs for healthcare establishments in Brazil, 2000 to 2015]. / Desastres naturais e seus custos nos estabelecimentos de saúde no Brasil no período de 2000 a 2015.

Natural disasters result in impacts on the population's health, damage to healthcare establishments, and, in extreme situations, the health systems' breakdown. National and global trends show an increase in the frequency of disasters associated with climate change. This article aims to analyze the impacts and economic costs of natural disasters for healthcare establishments, identifying the most frequent and costly types and distribution across the Brazilian territory, based on data recorded in Brazil's Integrated Disaster Information System (S2ID) from 2000 to 2015. A total of 15,950 records were systematized and analyzed, of which only 29.4% of the events showed records of costs, totaling nearly BRL 4 billion. Climate disasters were the most frequent, but they did not account for the highest costs. In the cost per event ratio, the costs of hydrological disasters were 3.2 to 3.6 higher than for climate and geologic disasters. Pernambuco, Amazonas, and Santa Catarina were the states with highest total costs in millions of Brazilian reais. The North region, especially the state of Acre, had the highest cost per disaster. Despite the study's limitations (involving the records' quality), the data should be viewed as the tip of an iceberg, since the impacts go beyond the economic damages, impacting the infrastructure and resources that support services, compromising their capacity precisely when the population most needs health services.

Do global ao local: desafios para redução de riscos à saúde relacionados com mudanças climáticas, desastre e Emergências em Saúde Pública / From global to local: challenges to reduce health risks related to climate change, disasters, and Public Health Emergencies

RESUMO Pela primeira vez na história, presenciam-se transformações no padrão esperado do clima com consequências ainda desconhecidas para sociedade industrial moderna. Esses riscos globais ocorrem em um mundo cada vez mais conectado, com população crescente e ambientalmente degradado, tendo como pano de fundo um cenário em que há uma relação proporcionalmente inversa entre os países, populações e grupos sociais que sofrem, de modo mais amplo e intenso, os riscos e danos provocados pelas mudanças climáticas. Um dos impactos imediatos já observados é o aumento na frequência e na magnitude de eventos extremos, gerando cenários propícios ao surgimento de emergências em saúde. Este artigo teve como objetivo apresentar os principais desafios para redução de riscos à saúde relacionados com mudanças no clima, desastre e Emergências em Saúde Pública; os principais avanços nas políticas sobre o tema; e ações de saúde dentro desse complexo cenário social, ambiental e sanitário iminente. Como resultado, apresentam-se os principais acordos globais relacionados e as necessidades de ampliação do Sistema Nacional de Redução de Riscos à Saúde visando fortalecer as ações necessárias, a fim de obter resposta adequada aos fatores de risco apresentados. Para tanto, apresentam-se seis recomendações necessária à elaboração desse sistema.

ABSTRACT For the first time in history, transformations in the expected pattern of the climate are witnessed with consequences still unknown for modern industrial society. These global risks occur in an increasingly connected world, with a growing and environmentally degraded population, against the background of a scenario in which there is a proportionately inverse relationship between countries, populations and social groups that suffer, in a broader and more intense way, the risks and damages caused by climate change. One of the immediate impacts already observed is the increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events, generating scenarios favorable to the emergence of health emergencies. This article aimed to present the main challenges for reducing health risks related to climate change, disaster and Public Health Emergencies; the main advances in policies on the subject; and health actions within this complex imminent social, environmental and health scenario. As a result, the main related global agreements and the needs to expand the National Health Risk Reduction System are presented, aiming at strengthening the necessary actions, in order to obtain an adequate response to the risk factors presented. To this end, six recommendations are presented that are necessary for the elaboration of this system.

Dengue spatiotemporal dynamics in the Federal District, Brazil: occurrence and permanence of epidemics. / Dinâmica espaço-temporal da dengue no Distrito Federal, Brasil: ocorrência e permanência de epidemias.

The specific characteristics of the Federal District (DF) favor the introduction, reproduction, dissemination, and permanence of dengue vector and viruses. Here, we aimed to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns of dengue epidemics in the Administrative Regions (RAs) of the DF from January 2007 to December 2017. We used Fourier partial series model to obtain a seasonal signature of the time series, which allowed calculating indicators of permanence (number of epidemic years, number of epidemic months per year, the proportion of epidemic months for the period) and time/moment of epidemics (month of epidemic peak). A total of 82 epidemics were recorded in this period. The RAs with the largest number of epidemic years were Varjão (5 epidemics), Gama, Lago Sul, and Sobradinho (4 epidemics). These last three RAs also had the highest proportions of epidemic months of the entire study period (9 epidemic months). The RAs with urban centrality function had an earlier epidemic peak than the others, in February and March. Epidemics showed high permanence values in RAs with different types of occupations, emphasizing the need to consider the social organization of space processes in dengue distribution studies.

Adesão às medidas de restrição de contato físico e disseminação da COVID-19 no Brasil / Adhesión a medidas de restricción de contacto físico y diseminación del COVID-19 en Brasil / Adherence to physical contact restriction measures and the spread of COVID-19 in Brazil

Objetivo: Analisar a adesão da população às medidas de restrição de contato físico e disseminação da COVID-19 no Brasil. Métodos: Inquérito de saúde, realizado pela internet, com amostragem em cadeia, no período de 24 de abril a 24 de maio de 2020. A intensidade da adesão à restrição de contato físico foi analisada segundo características sociodemográficas, utilizando-se modelos de regressão logística para investigar associações com 'Nenhuma/pouca adesão'. Resultados: Dos 45.161 participantes, 74,2% (73,8-74,6%) relataram intensa adesão às medidas. O grupo que não aderiu às medidas foi composto homens (31,7%), com idade de 30 a 49 anos (36,4%), baixa escolaridade (33,0%), trabalhando durante a pandemia (81,3%), residentes nas regiões Norte (28,1%) e Centro-Oeste (28,5%) do país. Houve importante redução das taxas de crescimento diário, de 45,4 para 5,0%. Conclusão: Grande parte da população brasileira aderiu às medidas de restrição de contato físico, o que, possivelmente, contribuiu para reduzir a disseminação da COVID-19.

Objetivo: Analizar la adhesión de los brasileños a las medidas de restricción de contacto físico y diseminación del COVID-19. Métodos: Encuesta de salud realizada por internet con muesteo em cadena entre 24 de abril y 24 de mayo de 2020. La intensidad de la adhesión a la restricción de contacto físico se analizó de acuerdo con características sociodemográficas, utilizando modelos de regresión logística para investigar asociaciones con 'Ninguna/poca adhesión'. Resultados: Participaron 45.161, de los cuales un 74,2% (73,8;74,6%) informó intensa adhesión. El grupo con poca adhesión se caracterizó por hombres (31,7%), 30-49 años (36,4%), baja educación (33,0%), que trabajaron durante la pandemia (81,3%), residiendo em las regiones Norte (28,1%) y Centro-Oeste (28,5%) del país. En Brasil hubo una reducción relevante em las tasas de crecimiento diario, del 45,4% al 5,0%. Conclusión: Gran parte de la población adhirió a las medidas de restricción de contacto físico, lo que posiblemente contribuyó a la disminución de la diseminación del COVID-19.

Objective: To analyze the adherence of the population to physical contact restriction measures and the spread of COVID-19 in Brazil. Methods: This was a web-based health survey carried out from April 24 to May 24 2020 using a chain sampling procedure. Intensity of adherence to physical contact restriction measures was analyzed according to sociodemographic characteristics, using logistic regression models to investigate associations with 'No/little adherence'. Results: Of the 45,161 participants, 74.2% (73.8;74.6%) reported intense adherence to the measures. The group that did not adhere to the measures was characterized by men (31.7%), those aged 30 to 49 (36.4%), those with low education levels (33.0%), those who worked during the pandemic (81.3%), those resident in the North (28.1%) and Midwest (28.5%) regions of the country. In Brazil as a whole, there was a decrease in COVID-19 daily growth rates, from 45.4% to 5.0%. Conclusion: A large part of the Brazilian population adhered to physical contact restriction measures, which possibly contributed to decreasing the spread of COVID-19.

Is it time to talk about the end of social distancing? A joinpoint analysis of COVID-19 time series in Brazilian capitals

Abstract INTRODUCTION: Monitoring coronavirus disease (COVID-19)-related infections and deaths in Brazil is controversial, with increasing pressure to ease social distance measures. However, no evidence of a sustained, widespread fall in cases exists. METHODS We used segmented (joinpoint) regression analysis to describe the behavior of COVID-19 infections in Brazilian capital cities. RESULTS All capitals showed an exponential or a near-exponential increase in cases through May. A decline in reported cases was subsequently noted in 20 cities but was only significant for 8 (29.6%) and was followed in two by a renewed increase. CONCLUSIONS Caution is warranted when considering the relaxation of restrictions.

Desastres naturais e seus custos nos estabelecimentos de saúde no Brasil no período de 2000 a 2015 / Natural disasters and their costs for healthcare establishments in Brazil, 2000 to 2015 / Desastres naturales y sus costes para los establecimientos de salud en Brasil, período de 2000 a 2015

Resumo: Desastres naturais resultam em impactos na saúde das populações, danos aos estabelecimentos de saúde e, em situações extremas, colapso dos sistemas de saúde. Tendências nacionais e globais evidenciam o aumento da frequência dos desastres associados às mudanças climáticas. O objetivo deste artigo é analisar os impactos e custos econômicos dos desastres naturais sobre os estabelecimentos de saúde, identificando tipos mais frequentes e de maior custo, e distribuição no território nacional, tendo como base os dados registrados no Sistema Integrado de Informações sobre Desastres (S2ID) no período de 2000 a 2015. Foram sistematizados e analisados 15.950 registros, sendo que deste universo, em somente 29,4% das ocorrências havia registros de custos, totalizando quase R$ 4 bilhões. Os desastres climatológicos foram os mais recorrentes, mas não os responsáveis pelos custos mais expressivos. Na relação custos por evento, os desastres hidrológicos apresentaram custos 3,2 e 3,6 vezes maiores do que os meteorológicos e geológicos. Em relação ao custo total em milhões de reais nos estados, destacaram-se Pernambuco, Amazonas e Santa Catarina. Em relação ao custo por desastre em milhões de reais o destaque foi a Região Norte e em particular o Acre. Apesar das limitações deste estudo relacionadas à qualidade dos registros, os dados apresentados devem ser compreendidos como a ponta visível de um iceberg, pois os impactos e danos vão além dos econômicos, com impactos sobre a infraestrutura e recursos que servem de suporte aos serviços, comprometendo a capacidade de oferta exatamente quando a população mais necessita dos serviços de saúde.

Abstract: Natural disasters result in impacts on the population's health, damage to healthcare establishments, and, in extreme situations, the health systems' breakdown. National and global trends show an increase in the frequency of disasters associated with climate change. This article aims to analyze the impacts and economic costs of natural disasters for healthcare establishments, identifying the most frequent and costly types and distribution across the Brazilian territory, based on data recorded in Brazil's Integrated Disaster Information System (S2ID) from 2000 to 2015. A total of 15,950 records were systematized and analyzed, of which only 29.4% of the events showed records of costs, totaling nearly BRL 4 billion. Climate disasters were the most frequent, but they did not account for the highest costs. In the cost per event ratio, the costs of hydrological disasters were 3.2 to 3.6 higher than for climate and geologic disasters. Pernambuco, Amazonas, and Santa Catarina were the states with highest total costs in millions of Brazilian reais. The North region, especially the state of Acre, had the highest cost per disaster. Despite the study's limitations (involving the records' quality), the data should be viewed as the tip of an iceberg, since the impacts go beyond the economic damages, impacting the infrastructure and resources that support services, compromising their capacity precisely when the population most needs health services.

Resumen: Los desastres naturales provocan impactos en la salud de las poblaciones, perjuicios para establecimientos de salud y, en situaciones extremas, un colapso de los sistemas de salud. Tendencias nacionales y globales evidencian el aumento en la frecuencia de los desastres, asociados a los cambios climáticos. El objetivo de este artículo es analizar los impactos y costes económicos de los desastres naturales sobre los establecimientos de salud, identificando los tipos más frecuentes y de mayor coste, y su distribución en el territorio brasileño, teniendo como base los datos registrados en el Sistema Integrado de Información sobre Desastres (S2ID), durante el período de 2000 a 2015. Se sistematizaron y analizaron 15.950 registros, dentro de este universo solamente en un 29,4% de las ocurrencias existían registros de costes, totalizando casi BRL 4 billones. Los desastres climatológicos fueron los más recurrentes, pero no los responsables de los costes más significativos. En la relación de costes por evento, los desastres hidrológicos tuvieron un coste 3,2 y 3,6 veces mayor que los meteorológicos y geológicos. Destacaron, en relación con su coste total en millones de reales, los estados de: Pernambuco, Amazonas y Santa Catarina. En lo que se refiere al coste por desastre en millones de reales resalta la Región Norte y en particular el estado de Acre. A pesar de las limitaciones de este estudio, relacionadas con la calidad de los registros, los datos presentados deben ser comprendidos como la punta visible de un iceberg, puesto que los impactos y perjuicios van más allá de la economía, afectando a la infraestructura y recursos que sirven de soporte para los servicios, comprometiendo la capacidad de oferta precisamente cuando la población necesita más los servicios de salud.